Impactos de la Oscilación del Sur de El Niño en la variabilidad hidroclimatológica de una cuenca andina tropical a partir de conjuntos de datos finos espacializados
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26640/22159045.2025.654Keywords:
ENSO, Water security, Natural hazards, Precipitation, Gridded datasetsAbstract
This study explored the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on hydro-climatological variability within a tropical Andean basin, using the Peñol-Guatapé reservoir basin in Colombia as a case study. ENSO, as a primary global climate variability mode, manifests in warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases, impacting precipitation patterns across regions. Given its location, the Peñol-Guatapé basin is highly susceptible to these climatic fluctuations, which affect water availability, hydropower generation, and related natural hazards, such as landslides and droughts. Various high-resolution precipitation datasets were analyzed for their accuracy in representing precipitation patterns in the basin. The findings showed that CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations data) data best captures precipitation variability, aligning most closely with surface gauge measurements. The study also investigated ENSO-driven anomalies, revealing that El Niño events lead to substantial precipitation reductions, especially during the driest seasons, posing risks to water security and hydropower generation. Conversely, La Niña enhances precipitation, potentially increasing the risk of floods and landslides. Seasonal precipitation anomalies during ENSO phases were evaluated, confirming that the basin’s hydrological conditions are modulated by ENSO-driven precipitation patterns. These findings underscore the need for adaptive water management strategies to mitigate the impact of climate variability on water resources, infrastructure, and ecological stability in the Andean region. This research contributes to the understanding of ENSO’s localized impact, aiding in future water resource planning and risk management for the basin.
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