Determination of the maximum flood heights using numerical modeling in Bahía Solano, Chocó

Abstract

The middle and extreme regime of sea level in Bahia Solano, on the coast of the department of Chocó, was determined, showing an average maximum flooding level of 3.9997 m. The results are one of the main inputs for construction of the Highest Tide Line (HTL) for the above region. For the elaboration of the regimes the following assumptions were made: (i) the sea level at a given time is represented by the sum of the tide (astronomical component) and the residual tide (meteorological component), (ii) The astronomical component is considered a deterministic variable, while the tidal residue is considered as a random variable, following an approximately normal distribution, (iv) both components were treated as statistically independent variables. Considering the above, analysis for each components were carried out in the study area using analysis tools, harmonic analysis numerical modeling and indirect methods based on Montecarlo techniques and applied according to the deterministic and stochastic behavior presented by each variable.